US Quarterly Outlook - January 2014

by Craig West on 4/3/2014

Many of the risks to the outlook that we saw in the previous quarter have faded, and confidence in the outlook has improved, suggesting that absorption of real estate space will continue to improve as well.

  • The January Beige Book survey indicated that economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors through the end of 2013, and GDP growth in 4Q13 indicated improving consumer spending and business investment. We believe this confirms the consensus view that the Federal Reserve will continue to reduce bond purchases through year end 2014.
  • The debt ceiling debate remains an unknown risk at this point, but we believe it will be resolved relatively quickly without
    any significant impact on the financial markets and consumer and business confidence.
  • Recent financial market turmoil in several developing countries has rattled the world equity markets, but we do not anticipate a meaningful impact on the US economy. Indeed, the safe-haven status of the US economy has quickly pulled bond yields lower.

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